読み込み中...(契約データと決済履歴から解約率を計算しています)
| 項目 | 金額 |
|---|---|
| 売上 | 4,928.0 |
| 回線原価・CP原価 | -1,100.0 |
| 請求コスト | -276.0 |
| 未収コスト 売上の28.7% | -1,414.3 |
| CSコスト | 0.0 |
| さくら匠原価 | 0.0 |
| 固定費 | 0.0 |
| その他 | 0.0 |
| ストック単価 | 2,137.7 |
エクセルの手入力値です(config/ltvParams.json)。 割引率は年 1.5%=月 0.12%。
| 実績が使える期間 | 7ヶ月(1〜7ヶ月目) |
| それ以降に置く値 | 8.64%(実績末尾3ヶ月の平均) |
| 母数の最小ライン | 30人 |
| 観測の締め | 2026-05(反映ラグ3ヶ月ぶん手前) |
| 対象顧客 | 790人 |
未収率は前提 28.7%(費用なのでマイナス計上) に対し、実績は 23.3%。 離れている場合は config/ltvParams.json の 未収コスト を見直してください。
| 経過月 | 解約率 | 母数 | 残存率 | 単価 | 将来収益 | 累計(=LTV) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.87% | 697 | 98.1% | 2,138 | 2,135 | 2,135 |
| 2 | 2.35% | 637 | 95.8% | 2,138 | 2,093 | 4,228 |
| 3 | 19.77% | 526 | 76.9% | 2,138 | 2,041 | 6,268 |
| 4 | 8.66% | 335 | 70.2% | 2,138 | 1,635 | 7,904 |
| 5 | 8.66% | 231 | 64.1% | 2,138 | 1,492 | 9,395 |
| 6 | 9.23% | 130 | 58.2% | 2,138 | 1,361 | 10,756 |
| 7 | 7.46% | 67 | 53.9% | 2,138 | 1,234 | 11,990 |
| 8 | 8.64% | — | 49.2% | 2,138 | 1,140 | 13,131 |
| 9 | 8.64% | — | 45.0% | 2,138 | 1,040 | 14,171 |
| 10 | 8.64% | — | 41.1% | 2,138 | 949 | 15,120 |
| 11 | 8.64% | — | 37.5% | 2,138 | 866 | 15,987 |
| 12 | 8.64% | — | 34.3% | 2,138 | 790 | 16,777 |
| 13 | 8.64% | — | 31.3% | 2,138 | 721 | 17,498 |
| 14 | 8.64% | — | 28.6% | 2,138 | 658 | 18,156 |
| 15 | 8.64% | — | 26.1% | 2,138 | 600 | 18,756 |
| 16 | 8.64% | — | 23.9% | 2,138 | 548 | 19,304 |
| 17 | 8.64% | — | 21.8% | 2,138 | 500 | 19,804 |
| 18 | 8.64% | — | 19.9% | 2,138 | 456 | 20,260 |
| 19 | 8.64% | — | 18.2% | 2,138 | 416 | 20,676 |
| 20 | 8.64% | — | 16.6% | 2,138 | 380 | 21,056 |
| 21 | 8.64% | — | 15.2% | 2,138 | 346 | 21,402 |
| 22 | 8.64% | — | 13.9% | 2,138 | 316 | 21,718 |
| 23 | 8.64% | — | 12.7% | 2,138 | 288 | 22,006 |
| 24 | 8.64% | — | 11.6% | 2,138 | 263 | 22,270 |
| 25 | 8.64% | — | 10.6% | 2,138 | 240 | 22,510 |
| 26 | 8.64% | — | 9.7% | 2,138 | 219 | 22,729 |
| 27 | 8.64% | — | 8.8% | 2,138 | 200 | 22,928 |
| 28 | 8.64% | — | 8.1% | 2,138 | 182 | 23,111 |
| 29 | 8.64% | — | 7.4% | 2,138 | 166 | 23,277 |
| 30 | 8.64% | — | 6.7% | 2,138 | 152 | 23,429 |
| 31 | 8.64% | — | 6.2% | 2,138 | 139 | 23,568 |
| 32 | 8.64% | — | 5.6% | 2,138 | 126 | 23,694 |
| 33 | 8.64% | — | 5.1% | 2,138 | 115 | 23,809 |
| 34 | 8.64% | — | 4.7% | 2,138 | 105 | 23,914 |
| 35 | 8.64% | — | 4.3% | 2,138 | 96 | 24,010 |
| 36 | 8.64% | — | 3.9% | 2,138 | 88 | 24,098 |
| 37 | 8.64% | — | 3.6% | 2,138 | 80 | 24,178 |
| 38 | 8.64% | — | 3.3% | 2,138 | 73 | 24,251 |
| 39 | 8.64% | — | 3.0% | 2,138 | 67 | 24,317 |
| 40 | 8.64% | — | 2.7% | 2,138 | 61 | 24,378 |
| 41 | 8.64% | — | 2.5% | 2,138 | 55 | 24,434 |
| 42 | 8.64% | — | 2.3% | 2,138 | 51 | 24,484 |
| 43 | 8.64% | — | 2.1% | 2,138 | 46 | 24,530 |
| 44 | 8.64% | — | 1.9% | 2,138 | 42 | 24,572 |
| 45 | 8.64% | — | 1.7% | 2,138 | 38 | 24,611 |
| 46 | 8.64% | — | 1.6% | 2,138 | 35 | 24,646 |
| 47 | 8.64% | — | 1.4% | 2,138 | 32 | 24,678 |
| 48 | 8.64% | — | 1.3% | 2,138 | 29 | 24,707 |
| 49 | 8.64% | — | 1.2% | 2,138 | 27 | 24,733 |
| 50 | 8.64% | — | 1.1% | 2,138 | 24 | 24,758 |
| 51 | 8.64% | — | 1.0% | 2,138 | 22 | 24,780 |
| 52 | 8.64% | — | 0.9% | 2,138 | 20 | 24,800 |
| 53 | 8.64% | — | 0.8% | 2,138 | 18 | 24,818 |
| 54 | 8.64% | — | 0.8% | 2,138 | 17 | 24,835 |
| 55 | 8.64% | — | 0.7% | 2,138 | 15 | 24,851 |
| 56 | 8.64% | — | 0.6% | 2,138 | 14 | 24,865 |
| 57 | 8.64% | — | 0.6% | 2,138 | 13 | 24,877 |
| 58 | 8.64% | — | 0.5% | 2,138 | 12 | 24,889 |
| 59 | 8.64% | — | 0.5% | 2,138 | 11 | 24,900 |
| 60 | 8.64% | — | 0.4% | 2,138 | 10 | 24,909 |
| 61 | 8.64% | — | 0.4% | 2,138 | 9 | 24,918 |
| 62 | 8.64% | — | 0.4% | 2,138 | 8 | 24,926 |
| 63 | 8.64% | — | 0.3% | 2,138 | 7 | 24,934 |
| 64 | 8.64% | — | 0.3% | 2,138 | 7 | 24,941 |
| 65 | 8.64% | — | 0.3% | 2,138 | 6 | 24,947 |
| 66 | 8.64% | — | 0.3% | 2,138 | 6 | 24,952 |
| 67 | 8.64% | — | 0.2% | 2,138 | 5 | 24,957 |
| 68 | 8.64% | — | 0.2% | 2,138 | 5 | 24,962 |
| 69 | 8.64% | — | 0.2% | 2,138 | 4 | 24,966 |
| 70 | 8.64% | — | 0.2% | 2,138 | 4 | 24,970 |
| 71 | 8.64% | — | 0.2% | 2,138 | 4 | 24,974 |
| 72 | 8.64% | — | 0.2% | 2,138 | 3 | 24,977 |
| 73 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 3 | 24,980 |
| 74 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 3 | 24,983 |
| 75 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 2 | 24,985 |
| 76 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 2 | 24,987 |
| 77 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 2 | 24,989 |
| 78 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 2 | 24,991 |
| 79 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 2 | 24,993 |
| 80 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 2 | 24,994 |
| 81 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 1 | 24,996 |
| 82 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 1 | 24,997 |
| 83 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 1 | 24,998 |
| 84 | 8.64% | — | 0.1% | 2,138 | 1 | 24,999 |
| 85 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,000 |
| 86 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,001 |
| 87 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,002 |
| 88 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,003 |
| 89 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,004 |
| 90 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,004 |
| 91 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,005 |
| 92 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 1 | 25,005 |
| 93 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,006 |
| 94 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,006 |
| 95 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,007 |
| 96 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,007 |
| 97 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,007 |
| 98 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,007 |
| 99 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,008 |
| 100 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,008 |
| 101 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,008 |
| 102 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,008 |
| 103 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,009 |
| 104 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,009 |
| 105 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,009 |
| 106 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,009 |
| 107 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,009 |
| 108 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,009 |
| 109 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,009 |
| 110 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 111 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 112 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 113 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 114 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 115 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 116 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 117 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 118 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 119 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
| 120 | 8.64% | — | 0.0% | 2,138 | 0 | 25,010 |
src/ltvTable.js)。 表の読み解きは docs/ltv-excel-structure.md にまとめてあります。docs/billing-rows-audit.md)、 直近の月は「請求が無い」ように見えるだけです。観測は 2026-05 で締めています。